On 5 October 2026, the European Commission published the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificate price for Q3 2026 at €82.32 per tonne of CO₂, approximately 9.4% higher than in Q2. This was the highest price in the first three quarters of the year. It is based on auction prices for allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS).
The new price gives importers a clearer basis for estimating the carbon cost of goods entering the EU. For producers and exporters, the development shows how emissions management increasingly affects product prices and competitiveness.
CBAM moves from emissions reporting to a financial obligation
CBAM entered its definitive phase on 1 January 2026, following the transitional period from October 2023 through the end of 2025. It currently covers six sectors: cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen. Authorised CBAM declarants must declare imported goods, determine their embedded emissions and surrender the corresponding number of certificates.
CBAM is designed to reduce the risk that production shifts to countries with less stringent emissions rules. Article 21 of Regulation (EU) 2023/956 links the certificate price to the average closing prices of EU ETS allowance auctions on the common auction platform. This mechanism aligns the carbon cost of covered imports with the cost borne by EU producers under the EU ETS.
The price follows the import quarter; certificates are purchased later
For goods imported in 2026, the applicable certificate price is determined by the quarter of import. Goods imported in Q3 2026 therefore use the €82.32 certificate price, although the sale of certificates for those imports is scheduled to begin in February 2027.
Under Regulation (EU) 2023/956, as amended by Regulation (EU) 2025/2083, certificate sales begin on 1 February 2027. The first declaration for 2026 imports and the corresponding surrender of certificates are due by 30 September 2027.
How is the CBAM cost calculated?
Multiplying 1,000 tCO₂e of embedded emissions by the Q3 2026 certificate price gives €82,320. The actual obligation also reflects the adjustment for free allocation under the EU ETS and any eligible carbon price effectively paid in the country of production.
For one category of goods, the calculation described in the Commission's guidance can be expressed as:
N = M × max(0, SEE − SEFA − SECPP / Pref) Embedded emissions − free-allocation adjustment − equivalent deduction for an eligible carbon price paid; multiply the remaining amount per tonne of goods by imported mass.
The symbols are:
In this example, Pref is an assumed annual average used for the conversion. The Q3 2026 purchase price is separately set at €82.32 per certificate.
Illustrative example
Assume an importer brings 1,000 tonnes of steel products into the EU in Q3 2026 with the following inputs:
Interactive calculation
Change the assumed inputs
Enter non-negative values; the reference price must be greater than zero.
1. Embedded emissions
E = M × SEE
1,500 tCO₂e
1,000 × 1.50 = 1,500
2. Free-allocation adjustment
A = M × SEFA
900 certificates
1,000 × 0.90 = 900
3. Carbon price paid and deduction
SECPP = paid price × covered emissions
€20 × 0.60 = €12 per tonne of goods
T = M × SECPP: €12,000
D = T / Pref: 150 certificates
4. Certificates to surrender
N = max(0, E − A − D)
450 certificates
max(0, 1,500 − 900 − 150) = 450
5. Purchase cost at the Q3 2026 price
C = N × PQ3
€37,044
450 × €82.32 = €37,044
All emission values, free-allocation adjustments, paid carbon price and annual reference price in this example are assumptions. A declarant must use the data and adjustments applicable to the actual goods.
Under Article 9 of Regulation (EU) 2023/956, a claimed deduction for a carbon price paid abroad must be supported by evidence that the price was effectively paid, accounting for relevant rebates or compensation, and meeting the documentation and certification requirements. The carbon price may arise from a carbon tax or an emissions trading system in the country of production.
Emissions data directly affects the cost calculation
Declarants may use EU default emissions values or actual emissions data. Where actual data is used, it must be verified by a suitably accredited verifier under CBAM requirements. Producers outside the EU should prepare product-level emissions data, production records and evidence for verification to provide to their EU customers.
For businesses with comparatively low actual emissions, verified data helps EU customers declare the product's real characteristics. Reducing emissions in production may also lower the CBAM obligation and strengthen competitiveness when buyers consider carbon costs in sourcing decisions.
From 2027, certificate prices will be published weekly
In 2026, CBAM certificate prices are calculated and published quarterly. From 2027, the frequency changes to weekly, still based on EU ETS allowance auction results.
Under Article 8 of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2548, the Commission publishes the price on its website on the first working day of the week following the relevant auctions. Businesses can monitor the Commission's CBAM certificate price page.
Weekly pricing calls for more frequent cost forecasts. For long-term supply contracts, producers and importers should also agree on how to calculate CBAM costs and allocate the risk of price changes.
CBAM exemption threshold: up to 50 tonnes per importer per year
Article 2a(1) and point 1 of Annex VII to Regulation (EU) 2023/956, as introduced by Regulation (EU) 2025/2083, set a threshold of 50 tonnes of aggregate net mass per importer in a calendar year. The threshold applies to covered goods in cement, iron and steel, aluminium and fertilisers; electricity and hydrogen are excluded under Article 2a(4).
Once the threshold is exceeded, CBAM obligations apply to all covered goods imported during that year, including goods brought in before the threshold was crossed. For example, an importer bringing in 30 tonnes in one shipment and 25 tonnes in a second shipment reaches 55 tonnes in total.
The Commission reviews this threshold periodically under Article 2a(3) to ensure that exempted imports account for no more than 1% of the embedded emissions within the assessment scope. Using data from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, the 50-tonne threshold was estimated to exempt approximately 0.87% of embedded emissions. This describes the aggregate effect of the threshold, not an individual importer's emissions.
What should exporters prepare?
The €82.32 Q3 2026 certificate price shows why carbon costs need to enter export pricing and contract negotiations with EU customers. Businesses should first identify goods within CBAM scope, complete product-level emissions records and arrange verification early.
Complete emissions data, information on the corresponding free-allocation adjustment and evidence of an eligible carbon price paid will help the EU declarant calculate its obligation accurately. These records also support preparation for the first declaration and certificate surrender deadline of 30 September 2027. Giant Barb will track the Commission's certificate prices on its website for each publication period to help businesses monitor price movements and forecast carbon costs.