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Exploring Uncertainty in the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) I: Synthesis of Latest Public Reports.

Aug 03, 2023

Summary: According to reports from The Guardian and Follow the Money, the voluntary carbon market (VCM) has recently experienced significant fluctuations. These reports focus on technical issues related to calculating carbon credits for carbon offset projects in the voluntary market. While the accuracy of these reports may not be certain, the attention and scrutiny from the public are likely to have a considerable impact on the future of VCM.

REDD+ and the Carbon Market

REDD+ is an initiative established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to guide activities aimed at reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in the forestry sector. The main objective of REDD+ is to protect forest areas from deforestation threats and play a crucial role in the fight against climate change. However, ensuring the protection of these forest areas requires substantial financial investments to cover opportunity costs from other activities such as agriculture or livestock.

One solution to address this issue is through the carbon market. This market allows large companies like Shell or Microsoft to offset emissions they cannot directly reduce by purchasing carbon credits generated from project activities. Thanks to this mechanism, forest areas can continue to be protected and supported in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while helping businesses achieve their carbon reduction goals.

However, for the carbon market to be effective and transparent, close monitoring and stringent controls are necessary to ensure reliability and fairness in assessing and recording carbon credits generated from REDD+ activities. This requires cooperation and commitment from stakeholders to build a reliable and sustainable carbon market, while supporting efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change on the environment and society.

VCM and Forest Conservation: Insights from the Paris Agreement and REDD+ Projects

The Paris Agreement has recognized the significance of forest conservation in achieving net-zero emissions. However, the reality shows that we have lost over 100 million hectares of forest, resulting in 170 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, the carbon market (VCM) has supported 84 REDD+ projects with around 2 billion USD from the private sector. The crucial role of the private sector cannot be denied, providing up to 20% of global funding to combat deforestation.

Notably, supporting forest conservation through the carbon market has become essential, yet some super-national agencies are not yet willing to invest in protecting forests with their resources. In this context, REDD+ projects serve as a way to preserve forest areas and strike a balance between international concern and the need for forest protection.

Despite facing recent public backlash, REDD+ projects will at least continue to exist until 2030, with the promise of around 140 countries coming together to end deforestation, as agreed upon at COP26.

VCM Volatility: Questions about the Accuracy of REDD+ Projects

In 2023, the voluntary carbon market (VCM) experienced significant turbulence. On January 18th, an investigative report was published by reputable news outlets such as The Guardian and Die Zeit. The report claimed that up to 94% of carbon credits from "Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation" (REDD+) activities, issued under the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) by Verra, did not deliver any climate benefits. Later in January, another article by Follow the Money highlighted uncertainty surrounding one of the world's largest REDD+ projects developed by one of the leading carbon project developers, South Pole.

Both reports asserted that REDD+ projects, upon scrutiny, exaggerated the issuance of carbon credits beyond the actual emission reductions achieved, as the rate of deforestation prevented/reduced by these projects was higher than the actual deforestation rate (a common risk known as "baseline drift" in REDD+ projects).

Overall, these reports garnered significant attention towards VCM, and the accuracy of carbon credit calculations has become a focal point for the industry and stakeholders. The findings from these investigations could have long-term implications on the credibility and transparency of carbon offset projects, leading to increased scrutiny and demand for stricter verification mechanisms in the voluntary carbon market.

Conclusion:

Implementing REDD+ and VCM projects is no easy task. Ensuring transparency and effectiveness in REDD+ and VCM projects requires careful consideration and scrutiny in their calculation and evaluation. The attention and monitoring from the public play a crucial role in ensuring the accuracy and reliability of these projects. With the right level of involvement and support from governments, private sectors, and the international community, REDD+ and VCM hold promise as important tools for forest conservation and climate change mitigation, contributing to building a sustainable future for the planet.